refactor(new-setup): rewrite probe in pure bash, drop unavailable fallback

The probe now returns a real snapshot from second zero, so every step
consults real probe fields instead of falling back to "run every step
blindly" when Node isn't installed. Also drops the redundant
CLI_AGENT_WIRED field (it gated the last step on its own end-state) and
scopes timezone out of the probe (timezone is not part of /new-setup).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

.claude/skills/new-setup/SKILL.md

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Before each step, narrate to the user in your own words what's about to happen
 
 Each step is invoked as `pnpm exec tsx setup/index.ts --step <name>` and emits a structured status block Claude parses to decide what to do next.
 
-Start with a probe: a single parallel scan that snapshots every prerequisite and dependency. The rest of the flow reads this snapshot to decide what to run, skip, or ask about — no per-step re-checking. The probe is plain ESM JS (`setup/probe.mjs`) with no external deps so it can run before step 1 has installed `pnpm`/`node_modules`.
+Start with a probe: a single upfront scan that snapshots every prerequisite and dependency. The rest of the flow reads this snapshot to decide what to run, skip, or ask about — no per-step re-checking. The probe is pure bash (`setup/probe.sh`) with no external deps so it runs correctly before Node has been installed.
 
 ## Current state
 
@@ -22,9 +22,7 @@ Start with a probe: a single parallel scan that snapshots every prerequisite and
 
 ## Flow
 
-Parse the probe block above. For each step below, consult the named probe fields and skip, ask, or run accordingly.
-
-If the probe reports `STATUS: unavailable` (Node isn't installed yet), ignore all `skip if …` probe conditions and run every step from 1 onward — each step has its own idempotency check, so re-running is safe.
+Parse the probe block above. For each step below, consult the named probe fields and skip, ask, or run accordingly. The probe always returns a real snapshot — there is no "node not installed" fallback; `HOST_DEPS=missing` is how you know Node/pnpm haven't been bootstrapped yet.
 
 ## Ordering and parallelism
 
@@ -40,12 +38,12 @@ One permitted parallelism:
 
 Check probe results and skip if `HOST_DEPS=ok` — Node, pnpm, `node_modules`, and `better-sqlite3`'s native binding are already in place.
 
-If the probe reported `STATUS: unavailable` (Node isn't installed yet — probe itself couldn't run), install Node 22 **before** running `bash setup.sh`, otherwise the first bootstrap run is guaranteed to fail:
+If `HOST_DEPS=missing` and `node --version` fails (Node isn't installed at all), install Node 22 **before** running `bash setup.sh`, otherwise the first bootstrap run is guaranteed to fail:
 
 - macOS: `brew install node@22`
 - Linux / WSL: `curl -fsSL https://deb.nodesource.com/setup_22.x | sudo -E bash - && sudo apt-get install -y nodejs`
 
-Then run `bash setup.sh`. If the probe succeeded but `HOST_DEPS=missing`, run `bash setup.sh` directly — Node is there, deps aren't.
+Then run `bash setup.sh`. If Node is already present and only `HOST_DEPS=missing`, run `bash setup.sh` directly — deps just haven't been installed yet.
 
 Parse the status block:
 
@@ -118,8 +116,6 @@ Start the NanoClaw background service — it relays messages between the user an
 
 ### 6. First CLI agent
 
-Check probe results and skip if `CLI_AGENT_WIRED=true`.
-
 If step 2's container build is still running in the background, join it here before proceeding — the agent needs the image.
 
 Create the first agent and wire it to the CLI channel. Ask the user "What should I call you?" first — default the offered value to `INFERRED_DISPLAY_NAME` from the probe.